Tuesday 1 December 2020
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scmp - 1 month ago

US election: are investors underestimating tail risks?

When it comes to elections, political analysts follow opinion polls. Investors, for their part, pay more attention to prediction markets, where bettors trade futures tied to different outcomes. Just days before the United States holds its momentous presidential election, an average of national polls compiled by RealClearPolitics shows that the race has tightened over the past few weeks.RealClearPolitics’ average of seven polls indicates that Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s lead over president…


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